Showing posts with label Irish inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Irish inflation. Show all posts

Thursday, February 6, 2014

6/2/2014: Rip-Off Ireland: Alive and Kicking… Courtesy of the State


This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times article from January 26, 2014.


Ninety five years ago, in his book The Economic Consequences of Peace (Chapter VI, pg.235-236), John Maynard Keynes observed that "By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens."

This week's announcement of price hikes by VHI serves as a timely reminder of the salience of Keynes' analysis.  As are the CSO release of comparative data for the cost of living and income per capita for Ireland and the rest of the EU.

The former shows the extent of the ongoing confiscation of households’ wealth through targeted price increases – a core feature of Irish response to the crisis. The latter highlights the combined effects of inflation and income declines on Irish consumers. In 2012, Ireland was the fifth most expensive state in the European Union in terms of the cost of final consumption by private households. At the same time, Irish per capita pre-tax national income, adjusting for purchasing power differentials, was only 11th in the EU.

Irish recovery from a deep fiscal and financial crisis has been a tale of financial repression. Since 2008, our successive Governments have underwritten the status quo of inefficiencies in public services, as well as the cost of recapitalizing the failed banks using the sweat and blood of Irish consumers and taxpayers. As a by-product of this, the state transferred vast amounts of wealth and income from the Middle Ireland and the less well-off households to state-protected and often state-owned producers of goods and services.


Significant parts of these transfers took form of targeted inflation.

Per CSO data, released earlier this month, average annual consumer inflation in 2013 fell to just 0.5 percent, less than one quarter of the average annual inflation recorded in 2011-2012. However, underlying these figures, there is a growing disparity between price trends in the sectors dominated by the state and the sectors where private enterprises compete directly for consumer demand. Not surprisingly, the highest inflation over 2013 was recorded in state-priced and state-owned sectors, such as Education, where prices rose more than nine times faster than across the whole economy.

Looking at the longer-range data reveals an even greater divergence between the state-controlled and market prices. Since the beginning of 2008 through December 2013, aggregate consumer prices rose by slightly more than 3 percent in cumulative terms. Over the same period of time, state-controlled prices were up 22 percent. These sectors cover goods and services that account for around one third of all household consumption in Ireland. Meanwhile, private sectors prices are up only 0.2 percent.

Take the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels category, where cost of services to Irish consumers, on aggregate, fell 3.7 percent between 2007 and 2013. This decline was driven by a 25 percent drop in Mortgage Interest costs and 13 percent decline in Private Rents. Costs also fell across virtually all maintenance and repair services associated with housing. In contrast, Local Authority Rents and state-controlled gas prices rose almost by one fifth over the same period. Cost of electricity was up 26 percent. All state-controlled or regulated prices within this group are on the rise, with majority posting double-digit inflation.  Price inflation in the energy sector is now so far divorced from underlying costs that a single new entry into the market by Energia is expected to drive prices down by some EUR 300 per annum, potentially erasing two thirds of the price hikes introduced over the last two years.

None of the above services, however, come close to the rampant inflation in Health and Education.

Since the onset of the crisis, costs of Hospital Services in Ireland rose more than 36 percent, over three times the rate of inflation for Outpatient Services. The very same policies that purposefully drove up the cost of Hospital Services are also responsible for a whooping 117 percent cumulative rise in Health Insurance costs since 2007. These policies forced health insurance purchasers to cover the shortfalls in funding available to the HSE, despite the fact that their insurance premiums and general taxes already fund state healthcare. As the result, the cost of health insurance rose at more than three and a half times the rate of inflation in home insurance costs and eleven times faster than inflation in motor insurance.

Tertiary education charges are up 60 percent since 2007. Private-sector dominated secondary and vocational education services meanwhile saw costs rise at roughly one third of the rate of inflation registered in our ITs and universities.

Based on CSO-estimated weights of different goods and services in a standardized consumer basket, inflation in controlled sectors is responsible for confiscating, using Keynes’ terms, just over 10 cents out of every euro spent on consumption of goods and services by an average household in Ireland since the beginning of the crisis. CSO and IMF reported producer prices and international exchange rates and inflation comparatives show that majority of these losses had nothing to do with increased costs of raw materials, intermediate goods and capital used in production. Put simply, they represent a crisis levy designed and imposed by the State and its semi-state companies.


Grim as they are, official inflation statistics, however, tell only a part of the story of wealth destruction imposed onto Irish consumers.

The above costs of inflation are compounded by the declines in Irish households’ disposable incomes due to various tax measures since 2008, combined with decreases in earnings and working hours. All in, Irish households’ today have around 12-15 percent lower disposable incomes than prior to the crisis. Factoring in the effects of unemployment and inflation, in terms of real purchasing power, Irish households are now down some 28 cents on the euro since the beginning of the crisis. Only around 2 cents of this decline is due to private sectors’ inflation with the rest taken up by changes to taxes, regulatory and pricing policies, plus by the monopoly power awarded to state-protected sectors.

Real Ireland - our lower-, middle and upper-middle classes - is paying the full price of the banking, fiscal and economic crises. Meanwhile, the State elites - senior public sector and semi-state officials, managers, politicians, state services executives and affiliated professionals - are ripping the benefits in form of jobs security, pensions and quality of life.


The economics of state confiscation of income through inflation and taxation do not end there, however. The real impact of these measures of financial and fiscal repression can only be dealt with in the context of their distribution across various households and demographics.

Normally, in response to price changes, consumers have an option to alter their demand for goods and services. In the case of ordinary consumption goods, this means that we switch away from more expensive alternatives.  Overtime, adjusting for quality of supply, our demand favors lower cost producers and suppliers, who gain market shares at the expense of more expensive, less-efficient ones. Thus, more elastic or more responsive demand helps not only to offset the painful costs of inflation in the short run, but also engenders innovation and competition in the longer term.

For example, during the current crisis, Irish consumers showed strong willingness to opt for discount stores when it comes to shopping for groceries and basic household items. Per latest reports from the retail sector, this Christmas, Tesco’s share of the Irish groceries markets shrunk by 6.2 percent at the expense of Aldi and Lidl which increased their share of the Irish market by double digits. A by-product of this is that the discounters are now offering increasingly more goods tailored to Irish tastes and are widening the breadth of offers in their stores across various segments of consumers. Another upside is that indigenous Irish competitors, such as SuperValu, are gaining the ground in this competition.

In contrast, consumers have little choice in switching away from the state-controlled or monopolised sectors. In 2013, Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services prices were up 64 percent on 2003 levels. More price hikes will come once Irish Water starts issuing charges under the state license to raise prices unabated for the first six years. All without any alternative of a different supplier being available to consumers.

Indirect effects of inflation are also stronger for consumers of goods and services with habitual or long-term demand. Healthcare and education are multi-annual commitments with little room for changing consumer behaviour in response to prices. Patterns of transport demand, linked to choices of location where one lives, are also less responsive to price changes, offering few options for trading out of the adverse effects of inflation. In all of these sectors, consumers have no choice but to pay for price increases. Demographically, younger households, usually heavily indebted via mortgages and struggling financially are the prime targets of this inflation.

Keynes had more to say about the role inflation pays in destroying households’ wealth and income. “… By this method [of inflation, the Governments] not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth."

In the case of Ireland during the current crisis, all of the above rings true, save for one important correction: Irish state-sanctioned inflation confiscates wealth and income by transferring money from productive private savings, investment, and consumption to shore up inefficient and often wasteful state services and semi-state sectors. There is little that is arbitrary in the context of the Rip-off Ireland ca 2014.





Box-out:

"You cannot corral a company to go to a particular part of the country unless it will make sense for their business ‐‐ particularly when the company's alternative location may be Amsterdam, Barcelona or Munich”. With these words the IDA spokesperson this week explained why agency-supported multinationals have been largely staying out of the regions, while flocking into Dublin. IDA made a perfectly valid point. Manufacturing exports, even stripping out patent cliff-hit pharmaceuticals, are barely expanding. Remote back office services – the bread-and-butter of so-called ‘call centres economy’ – are on decline across the advanced economies. This leaves what economists call human capital-intensive sectors – the ones largely dominated by jobs for highly-educated 22-35 year-olds coming choosing Ireland as their career stop-over. Working for Google, Facebook, Twitter and other internationally networked globally-trading multinationals, these employees do not want to live in the suburbs, let alone move to the countryside. They require cultural, social and economic amenities of large cities. Whether we like it or not, the MNCs of the 21st century inhabit the world where human capital defines productivity growth, profitability and value added. Bricks and mortar attractions of an IDA Park somewhere in the middle of nowhere do not. Time to bin Bertie’s Era Spatial Development Plans and to think how to transition our regional economic development model to a new and more sustainable basis.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

13/11/2012: Irish CPI v Euro Area: September 2012


In the previous post I covered overall dynamics of Irish consumer prices in October. Now, let's take a quick look at comparatives across the euro area. These are reported by the CSO with one month lag, so all we have is September 2012 year on year changes in prices. For comparative reasons, I also put y/y changes in prices for January 2012. The chart below shows the difference between Irish inflation and euro area overall inflation, with positive numbers signifying by how much Irish CPI changes in specific category exceeds euro area overall CPI changes for that category. Negative numbers show by how much euro area CPI changes exceeds Irish CPI changes.


Of notable trends/patterns:

  • Irish overall consumer price inflation HICP (2.4% annual in September 2012) was below that for the EA17 (2.6%) and below EU27 (2.7%).
  • Ireland also posted lower inflation in September in Food and-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footware, Furnishings, household equipment and maintenance, Health, Recreation and culture, and Restaurants and hotels.
  • Ireland posted identical (to EA17) inflation in Alcoholic beverages & tobacco.
  • Ireland's inflation was in excess of that for the EA17 in Housing, water, electricty, gas & other fuels, Transport, Communications, education (by a massive 9.3 percentage points) and Miscellaneous goods & services.
  • Higher inflation rates in Ireland have accelerated in September, compared to January in only two categories: Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, and Education.
In annual terms, Ireland is now in inflation territory since August 2010, with the peak rate of 3.11% in April 2011 and the current rate running at 1.20% - a modest inflationary environment, which means that our nominal GNP, were it to post 0% real growth is expanding at the rate closer to 1% nominally - a massive under-shooting of the rate of nominal growth required to deflate our debt pile.

13/11/2012: Consumer Prices in Ireland: October 2012

Consumer price index for October 2012, Ireland released last week chows broad continuation of the previously established trends, namely above-average inflation in state-controlled sectors, albeit the overall rate of the state-sanctioned rip-off of consumers is now moderating relative to previous months.

Overall CPI index dipped to 101.5 (2011 base year) in October compared to 101.6 in September, representing a mom change of -0.1% and y/y rise of 1.20%. 3mo average through October is at +0.36% rise on previous 3mo period and is up 1.60% y/y.

Charts below illustrate:

One thing is clear from the charts above: despite the economy still in trouble, cost of living in Ireland is now at the levels comparable with those attained in early 2008.

Looking at decomposition by broad category:

  • Price index in Food & non-alcoholic beverages category rose from 100.6 in September to 101.0 in October. The index is now up 1% y/y and 3mo average through October 2012 is 0.7% above the same period average a year ago.
  • Alcoholic beverages & tobacco prices index is slightly down from 103.7 in September 2012 to 103.5 in October 2012, but the index is still up 3.5% y/y and index 3mo average through October 2012 is up 3.57% on the same period a year ago. The index annual inflation was driven primarily by rises in price sof cigarettes (+6.9 y/y) and Other tobacco (+7.9% y/y)
  • Clothing and footware sub-category index is up from 99.5 in September to 100.5 in October. The sub-index is now up 1.01% y/y and its 3mo average through October 2012 is 0.64% ahead of the 3mo average for the same period in 2011. Garments were the only sub-category of goods in this category that showed y/y inflation (+2%), with other sub-categories posting deflation.
  • In Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels category, prices index rose from 96.8 in September to 98 in October, the index is up 1.24% m/m and is down 3.26% y/y. 3mo average through October is down 2.41% on a year ago. Mortgage interest posted a robust 18.1% decline y/y, but this decline is distributed unevenly with adjustable rate mortgages rising in cost, whiel tracker mortgages benefiting from ECB easy monetary policies. Meanwhile, largest y/y increases were recorded in Electricity (+8.7%), Gas (+9.3%) and Liquid fuels (+13.4%).
  • Furnishings, Household equipment and routine maintenance sub-index is down marginally from 97.4 in September to 97.2 in October. The sub-index is down 2.70% y/y and its 3mo average through October is down 2.53% y/y. Nine out of eleven sub-categories of goods and services posted deflation y/y in October.
  • Health prices index moderated from 100.4 to 100.2 m/m in October and is up only 0.3% y/y with 3mo average through October up 0.47% y/y. In Health, largest price increases in October in annual terms were in Other Medical Products (+2.9%) and Other medical and Paramedical Services (other than Doctors' fees) (+3.2%).
  • Transport sub-index fell significantly from 109.3 in September to 106.3 in October (down 2.74% m/m). However, the sub-index is still up 5.77% y/y and 3mo average through October 2012 is now up 7.34% on the same period of 2011. In Transport, largest increases in prices, annually, were in Petrol (+12.4%), Diesel (+11.1%), Motor Tax (+10.8%), Bus Fares (+9.2%), passenger Transport by Sea and Inland Waterway (+5.4%) and Combined Passenger Transport (+6.2%).
  • Communications prices sub-index moderated from 97.4 in September to 96.6 in October, down 3.40% y/y and down 2.67% y/y in terms of 3mo average through October. here, Postal services went up in price 1.5% y/y, while Telephone & telefax equipment and services were down in prices 3.6% y/y.
  • Recreation and culture prices sub-index rose from 98.7 in September to 99.2 in October, with an annual inflation registering at 6.73%. 3mo average through October was up 8.63% y/y.
  • Education costs rose at a monthly inflation of 4.6%, up 6.73 y/y in October to 104.6, while 3mo average through October 2012 was up 8.63% y/y. In education inflation was primarily diven by Secondary education (+2.5% y/y), Tertiary Education (+6.5%) and Education not definable by level (+6.6%).
  • Restaurants and hotels price index  was at 01.6 in October, down from 10.2 in September but still up 0.99% y/y, same rate of inflation as 3mo average through October 2012.
  • Miscellaneous goods and services sub-category price index rose from 104.2 in September to 105.2 in October and is up 5.62% y/y, with 3mo average through October 2012 up 5.40% on the same period a year ago. Here, health insurance costs were up 15.9% y/y and insurance connected with transport was up 4.7% y/y. Other services inflation run at 22.8% y/y in October.

 In terms of historical rates of inflation, charts below show current price indices for all main categories of goods and services relative to 1976 and 2007 readings.





Friday, September 14, 2012

14/9/2012: 36 years of state-incentivised inflation?


Some historical (up to August 2012) charts on Irish CPI. Orange bars mark state-dominated categories of goods and services. Interpret these as you wish. Summary table at the end is pretty much self-explanatory:







14/9/2012: Irish CPI for August - detailed charts


With some delay, here's the analysis of latest Consumer Price Inflation data for Ireland for August 2012:

Summary table of monthly and annual changes
Note: I will blog on overall inflation trend separately in the next post.

Here are changes by sector, including notable changes by sub-sector.

Monthly inflation:


Big spikes are in:

  • Clothing and Footware +6.6%
  • Mortgage Interest -3.2% (although CSO does not separate the differences between the ARM and trackers, which have been moving in the opposite directions)
  • Transport +1.6% (Petrol up 3.5%, Diesel up 4.0%
  • Transport Services +0.5% driven by Air Transport (+1.0%)
Year on year comparatives are more revealing:


The above clearly shows that most of the inflation on annual basis remains concentrated in the state controlled sectors (either via regulatory price hikes or direct state taxation and charges effects or via semi-states hiking prices on their own). Note that even in the 'Other Services' category, the inflation is driven by household charge being added in April 2012.

The Government strategy is clear, albeit, unlike the previous Government, the current one stays away from openly declaring this: milk Irish consumers for every penny they got via higher charges and state-captured prices. In effect, much of the price increases not caused by direct state taxation are still a form of taxation as the Government collects higher VAT and other taxes on those goods and services, provision of which it controls via semi-state bodies.

Thursday, August 9, 2012

9/8/2012: Rip-off Ireland roars again in July

Latest consumer price indices are out for Ireland. Headline number for annual comparatives is moderate inflation at 2.0% in HICP metric and 1.6% on CPI metric. M/m we have deflation.

Alas, the headlines do not tell the whole story. Much is revealed in the following three charts which, in summary, show that most of inflation, including double-digit rampant inflation, is concentrated in state-controlled or state-set prices (marked in red).



You can see that even when it comes to energy, state-controlled prices (e.g. electricity and natural gas) are ahead of inflation driven by virtually identical underlying oil and gas prices (other hydrocarbons-linked fuels).

The above, of course is consistent with the State policies that have prioritized extraction of rents from the private economy in order to close fiscal gap. The State is doing this even though Irish Government is aware that we face a deleveraging crisis among our households and companies. In other words, prioritization of the policy is clear - skin consumers to save the Exchequer and to hell with households barely capable of making ends meet.

Don't think that this is not a prescription for an economic disaster. Killing off private economy to sustain public sector's lack of real reforms as well as to sustain exceptionally costly measures to underwrite Irish financial sector meltdown is not a good thing to do. But, hey, 'international investors' seem to approve.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

19/03/2011: Retail sales & Consumer confidence



In the previous post I suggested that the latest inflation figures do not bode well for 'growth-linked inflation, but signal instead the worst kind of inflation - inflation that is driven by either imports or regulatory factors. Here's more evidence - consumer confidence and retail sales figures:
Larger markers in the above chart show February values - clearly, no sign of demand drivers for price increases anywhere in sight here. Same holds for consumer confidence as a driver.

19/03/2011: CPI update for February 2011

Some belated data charts updates. Irish CPI:
The chart above shows the uptick in February CPI (up 0.9%mom and 2.2% yoy) and HICP (up 0.9% mom and 0.9% yoy).

Annualized rates below:
Should we read this as a welcome catch up of prices due to demand changes or due to factory gates tightness? Not really. Take a look at components:

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels up +9.5% yoy, Miscellaneous Goods & Services +4.8%, Health +4.1% and Transport +3.5%. Deflation continued in Clothing & Footwear -4.6%, Education -2.9% and Furnishings, Household Equipment& Routine Household Maintenance -2.6%.

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages prices were up +0.7% mom and +1.2% yoy to February 2011. This compares to deflation of -8.0% yoy in February 2010. Mom, food prices increased by 0.7% while non-alcoholic beverages prices increased by 2.0%. So we know it wasn't the commodities prices inflation that drove our food prices. Especially since commodities-linked prices of bread&cereals deflated by -3.8%, other milk products -0.9%, other cereals -0.7%, cheese -0.6% and margarine & low fat spreads -0.5%, while butter rose +3.8%, preserves by +15.3%, as sweets and chocolate fell 1.3%. And so on... all over the place, really.

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels costs increased by 0.5% mom and by 9.5% yoy. There was a decrease of 10.6% yoy to February 2010. Mom, prices rose for liquid fuels (i.e.
home heating oil) +2.7%, materials for maintenance & repair of dwelling +1.5%, rents +1.0% and bottled gas +0.5%. A price decrease was recorded for mortgage interest -0.1%. But wait, yoy rents rose 0% and mortgage interest rose 20.3%. Clearly, credit crunch is raging for homeowners. One of the core remaining construction-related sub-sectors still standing is maintenance & repair of dwelling. This was down 0.1% yoy in terms of materials, but a significant -5.5% in terms of services - so work wages are down, but inputs on materials side is basically flat. Materials were up 1.5% mom and services were flat in February 2011. Given we import much of the former and retain domestically much of the latter, the news of overall monthly inflation in this category is really not good for Irish economy. We got the wrong end of inflation, folks - inflation that undermines our real incomes without supporting new jobs!

Electricity, gas and other fuels were up 10.5% yoy as a category, electricity up 3.2%, natural gas double that at 6.4%, liquid gas up 37.3% yoy. Again, wrong inflation for growth and much of it is due to changes in taxation structures, state companies surcharges and so on.

Health is a standout in the above chart. Down 0.6% mom but up 4.1% yoy. No need to explain why the cost of hospital services rose 11.5% - say 'Thanks' to our semi-state insurance company policies and the Budget, but not for the insurance prices increases - those are in the Miscellaneous Goods & Services where health insurance rose a massive 17.6% yoy and 14.4% mom.

Now - my exclusive - as usual, the breakdown of inflation by state v private sectors:
Or cumulative Rip-Off Government Policies effects:
Yet another legacy of the Social Partnership folks - as the Big Domestic Business (aka semi-states), State Quangonoids and Unions - the Real Golden Circle - take another bite at the economy's pie. The real economy is still on the edge of continued deflation (+0.1% mom), while the surreal Social Partnership-controlled economy is roaring ahead with 1.04% mom inflation, to 2011 fat bonuses. Happy times, as Borat would put it.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Economics 09/07/2009: Green Shoots to Brown Manure

Inflation figures are out - more significant deflation in works than was anticipated by the analysts (-0.3% in June relative to May, with annual rate off -5.4% in June against 4.7% in May). We are also diverging from the Eurozone, though no one should really care about that. Mortgage costs reductions (down 5.7% on average in June relative to May) were the largest factor. Public sectors and state-controlled prices are still in inflationary territory, so no surprise here either. My prediction for the annual inflation rate to hit -5.8-6% in Q4 2009 and reach -4.1-4.3% in a year as a whole. Public sector v private sector price differentials should widen by ca 5.5-6%, so the rip-off that is our State controlled economy will continue into 2010.

A decent note on inflation was from the Davy's this time around (sadly, my usual favorite Ulster Bank note was a bit less advanced than customary). Davy: "The good news is that Ireland has closed the gap further with the euro area price level. HICP in the euro area was up 0.2% mom, according to the “flash estimate”, versus no change (+0.0%) here in June. Ireland's price level is slowly but surely re-adjusting towards the euro area-16 level. Note that the gap was a massive 22% in 2008 on average according to Eurostat. It has closed by more than two percentage points since the peak last year and will be below 20% on average at end-2009. We do not think the price levels should necessarily converge (productivity and, hence, income disparities justify a premium), but Ireland's exporting sector – particularly the indigenous part – needs the gap to tighten significantly yet."

Now, not to overplay these trends, one has to be aware of the fact that this is exactly what we are missing in terms of devaluation. Competitiveness, normally restored via dropping one's currency value, would imply the value of the Irish Euro traveling south of the current 20% price gap with the EU and would require a devaluation to the tune of 30%. Why? I don't frankly believe in our superior productivity, so any income differential between Ireland, and say, Germany, should be nominal. We can't do that currency adjustment. Which means that with price deflation taking, say, 6-10% of the Eurozone-Ireland gap away, this leaves a 20-24% decline in wages to take up the slack. Awesome price to pay for the Euro membership.


Production in manufacturing figures for May 2009 are out as well:
Turnover index is down on renewed pressure - sales are stalling again, but production index is up, so is overcapacity looming again?
The two series crossed over in May, so expect production to turn down in summer months and turnover index to stagnate, setting stage for new layoffs should things fail to improve in September. Margins tighten, so workers must be next.

As manufacturing records -1.3% fall in January-May 2009 in annual terms, the rate of decline has indeed slowed, but this can easily be a technical correction before a renewed pressure down. Of course, 18.7% increase in pharma output obscured the reality somewhat. Significantly, other modern sectors posted a 22% drop in output, while domestic sectors recorded 13.8% contraction in 2009 to June 1. Now, recall that Davy eagles have spotted the end of economy-wide recession by pointing to agriculture turn-around. Inclusive of massive subsidies boost to pork producers, food sector output was down 0.4% in the first five months of 2009.

In seasonally adjusted index terms, manufacturing industries now stand at 97.6 - a reading that is bang-on in line with December 2008 (97.4) and February (97.5), marking the third lowest point for the sector since 2005. Turnover indices have hit new spells of deterioration in Manufacturing, Chemicals and Chemical Products, Basic Pharma Products & Preparations, Computer, electronic & Optical Products and Other Manufacturing - in other all sectors but Food Products. Capital goods production index is at the second lowest point since January 2008, Intermediate Goods index is no turning negative again.

In case you need an illustrative proof:
Slightly more interesting day for the US economy.

First, a great salvo from Warren Buffett, who said that as unemployment can hit 11%, the US economy might need a second round of stimulus. To those still looking for those 'green shoots', Buffett's analysis is clear: "We're not in a freefall, but we're not in a recovery either," he told ABC's "Good Morning America. We were in a freefall really in the last quarter of last year, starting in the financial markets and spreading to the economy, and we had this huge change in behaviour." Buffett compared the 2009 $787 billion stimulus passed by Congress to "half a tablet of Viagra and then having also a bunch of candy mixed in --- it doesn't have really quite the wallop."

Second, US first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell 52,000 to 565,000 in the latest weekly data, after seasonal adjustment, while continuing claims hit a record high, as the Labor Department reported. The four-week average of initial claims was down 10,000 to 606,000. The monthly moving average of continuing claims rose 12,000 to a record 6.77mln.

Nouriel Roubini has a superb article in Forbes (here): "The June employment report suggests that the alleged green shoots are mostly yellow weeds that may eventually turn into brown manure." A priceless openning salvo. As Brian Cowen is waiting for the US to pull us out of the depression.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Daily Economics 10/04/09: Rappers want Euros

Taxpayer champions?
An excellent argument by David Quinn on the need for someone to step out of the shadows and become a taxpayers champion (here). FG to the front, suggests David. Most likely. But in the end, in my view, even Sinn Fein will do? Or a backbenchers'-led revolt in the FF. The country is now at its knees and the ZanuFF's leadership is so out of touch with reality, Cowen is telling us - private sector workers battered by unemployment, wage cuts, higher taxes and unbearable debts - that public sector employees know pain endured by the economy first hand. "I believe that the reality of the crisis we face as a society is particularly evident to public servants who are dealing at first-hand with the consequences – personal, social and economic – of our current difficulties,” said our out of touch leader (here). Tell me Brian - how? Through their jobs-for-life, strike-for-any-reason, guaranteed-pensions, increments-wage-rises, Partnership-giveaways, excessive-holidays, take-your-time-to-do-anything positions?


Consumer prices... deflation is of little help to the consumers
: Per yesterday's figures on Irish CPI, see my comment in today's Irish Independent (here). And a quick comment to the Wall Street Journal from me relating to the latest Gov plan for a 'bad' bank (here).


And Gerard O'Neill has an excellent post on Partnership (here). Stockholm Syndrome at the IBEC and:
"Oh, I forgot: there's the Enterprise Stabilisation Fund - a grand total of €50 million this year. Let's work it out: say there's 1,000 companies eligible for support (about par with the numbers Enterprise Ireland works with every year). That equates to €50,000 in support - or stabilisation - for each company. Jaysus lads, this time next year we'll be millionaires..."
Actually it is even worse - of the €50mln, only €25mln is in new allocations to DETE, the other €25mln is coming from somewhere else - already in existence. And there was no support for export credits - a mad lunacy of the Government that is willing to waste billions on bad developer loans, but pinches an odd €10mln to provide short-term credit to companies with exports waiting at the dock and willing buyers on the other end. Instead of this virtually risk-free financing, we have the net 'stimulus package' is €25mln - a slap in the face to private sector Ireland and a clear indication of the arrogance and incompetence at the head of DETE.


A solution at hand for Cowen, Lenihan and Coughlan...
Here is an excerpt from the post (here) by a celebrity masseuse, Doctor Dot:
"Tonight... I massaged the best looking President on earth, Mikheil Saakashvili... He is the President of Georgia and super fun to talk to. He originally wanted only a 30 minute massage but 90 minutes later, he told me my massage is "the best massage I have had in my life so far". Mikheil had body gaurds [sic] outside the massage room the whole time, who were all over 6 feet tall and like 4 feet wide. One spoke English really well and told me his favorite group is Metallica. Ha. He said "I am a rocker!" so we got along fine, whilst waiting for the President to finish his work out. I was excited to finally get to massage a President. I have massaged the Prince of Saudi Arabia before and a few Mayors, but this was the first President for me."

Thus we have a prescription to presidential joy: get your economy demolished, country demoralised, make some spectacularly disastrous decisions across the board, appease your cronies, get your country into debt to the EU and then, get a massage...

Doctor Dot, we have three Saakashvilli equivalents here in Ireland - not as good looking and with less pleasing body guards, but otherwise, even more spectacular disasters... Massage sessions on taxpayers' bill?



Inflation cometh... Here is an excellent recent blog post from Marc Faber on the issue of upcoming inflation (and a related blog here). I've spotted the risk a while ago (here), so I am happy to report that we are now seeing more and more commentators beginning to concerns themselves with the obvious problem: where can all the liquidity that the Fed and other Central Banks are pumping into the global economy go. From the point of view of the long-term policy consistency for the Irish Government, this is a proper conundrum.

Having raised taxes in 2008-2009, what will Brian do when we have externally imported inflation hammering households, the ECB hiking rates killing off scores of Irish homeowners and we have no control over tax levers (because we have borrowed so much that rising interest rates will simply make it impossible to cut tax rates as the inflationary spiral uncoils)? Oh, I get it - he will simply remind us all of our patriotic duty to keep paying his wages.


Hopes are rising?..
No, not in Ireland, but my hedge funds networking group website has been inundated with jobs offers - sales, technical, trading etc - from US headhunters. For the first time since early 2008, the usual daily page of posts has been dominated not by 'distressed assets for sale' or 'looking for a position' memos, but by jobs offers. May, just may be, should jobs situation abroad stabilise, by the mid 2009 we will have that Irish solution to an Irish problem - emigration - becoming available to Irish financial sector professionals. Then we'll truly arrive in the 1980s scenario.


On the US data
: Yesterday's data from the US is painting an interesting, and cautiously encouraging picture.

First, the jobs front.
First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell a seasonally adjusted 20,000 to 654,000 in the week ended April 4. The level of first-time claims is 83% higher than the same period in 2008. The four-week average of th2 initial claims fell 750 to 657,250. However, for the week ended March 28, the number of people collecting state unemployment benefits reached yet another new record, up 95,000 to 5.84mln - double the level in 2008. Per Marketwatch, "continuing claims have gained for 12 consecutive weeks, and have reached new weekly records since late January." The 4-week average of continuing claims was up 146,750 to a record 5.65mln. The insured unemployment rate - the proportion of covered workers who are receiving benefits - rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, reaching the highest level since April 1983. All of this signals that while the new unemployment may be bottoming out, workers are not seeing an increase in new jobs availability. Of course, unemployment itself is a lagging indicator relative to, say, capital investment. Inventories declines, posted in recent days, have probably more to say about the underlying dynamics, signalling potentially a flattening of the downward trend in economic activity.

Corporate earnings... Two major corporates announced pre-reporting updates last night. Wells Fargo & Co surprised the markets yesterday with the Q1 2009 earnings note claiming that earnings will rise to $3bn - ahead of analysts forecasts - on the back of falling impairments and rising mortgage lending. Earnings figures were quoted net of dividends on preferred securities, including $372mln due to the Treasury Department. Analysts expected earnings of ca $1.94bn.
Total net charges will be $3.3bn, compared with Q4 2008 net charges of $2.8bn. Wachovia - purchased by Wells Fargo on December 31, 2008, will see net charges of $3.3bn. Provisions will be about $4.6bn in the quarter compared to $8.4bn in provisions during Q4 2008.The news drove US financials to significant gains yesterday as the markets were delighted to see the bank finding a way of generating profits out of free Federal money it received. Who could have thought that possible.

Aptly, US stocks jumped higher across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial closing its first five-week stretch of gains since October 2007, rising 246.27 points, or 3.1%, to finish at 8,083.38, up 0.8% for the week. The S&P 500 added 31.40 points, or 3.8%, to end at 856.56, a 1.7% rise in the week. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 61.88 points, or 3.9%, to 1,652.54, a weekly rise of 1.9%.

But there were some side-line noises from the real (i.e non-financial) side of the US economy when Chevron and Boeing issued earnings warnings on the back of lower oil prices, high production costs and falling demand for aircraft respectively. No free money from the taxpayers in their sectors has meant that the real economy continues to push lower.


World's new reserve currency... We have arrived - the Euro is becoming a reserve currency. The dollar is toast per BBC's latest report (here). And no, Euro's gains are not just in the market for Russian mafia wealth (remember those €1,000 bills issued in hope of diverting some of 'cash' reserves away from dollars). In fact, it is well diversified. As BBC reports, for some time already there has been a strong movement of US rappers out of dollars into euro. And there has been growing trade in services for euro-based money laundering by the drug cartels. At last, the hopes for a reserve currency challenge on the dollar are being realised.

I am of course being sarcastic - a disclaimer I have to put up for all Brusselcrats so concerned about any criticism of the euro. But to be honest, do we know how much of the EU paper been stuffed into the black markets? Seriously: rappers, mafia, drug barons... and Chinese Government - all think euro is the best thing since sliced bread... we've arrived.


And here is the latest take on the Budget (hat tip J):


Thursday, March 19, 2009

Daily economics update 19/03/2009

Excellent piece on Irish Nationwide excesses here - I would certainly encourage everyone to read through it.


On the news front -

Ireland:
Per CSO (here): the number of overseas trips by Irish residents fell by 8.4% to 502,100 in January 2009 compared to the 548,400 a year ago. Brian^2+Mary's tax on travel and recession biting. And euro's steady rise has taken a bite out of travel to Ireland too: there were 424,200 overseas trips to Ireland in January 2009 - down ca3% on 2008. "Visits by residents of Great Britain accounted for virtually all of this decrease, falling by almost 16,000 (7%) to 208,300." Needless to say - this is costing this country. Visits by residents of Other Europe and North America recorded slight increases to 149,500 and 45,200 respectively. No breakdown on vitally important length of stay and locations visited by foreign tourists here was made available. The crucial point missing here is just how bad is it going to get for Irish hotels, located outside Dublin. In recent months, these palaces of rural kitsch built on the back of senile tax breaks to developers, courtesy (in part) of Brian Cowen in his tenure as Minister for Finance, have been popping out of business like flies in late autumn.

Also courtesy of CSO:
Monthly factory gate prices increased by 0.9% in February 2009, as compared with an 0.2% rise recorded a year ago, the annual increase of 3.9% in February 2009, compared with and annual rate of growth of 3.2% in January 2009. Inflation cometh? Well, possibly. In the year the price index for export sales was up 4.3% while the price index for home sales was up 1.7%.

Wholesale price changes by sector of use shows that: Building and Construction All material prices decreased by 1.2% in the year since February 2008 (surprisingly, very small deflation in the face of all but collapsed construction), and there were increases in Cement (+8.0%), and Stone, sand and gravel (+4.8%). At least Sean Quinn can always go back to mining boulders. Year on year, the price of Capital Goods decreased by 0.1%, and the rate is accelerating to -0.4% last month. The price of Energy products increased by 5.2% in the year since February
2008, while Petroleum fuels decreased by 17.9%. So ESB and Board Gais are still ripping us off, while teh Government is fast asleep. In February 2009, there was a monthly increase in Energy products of 0.4%, while Petroleum fuels increased by 1.6%.

But hey, the good news is that we are now in a 'breeding boom'. According to the CSO, there were 19,027 births registered in Q2 2008, an increase of 1,900 on 2007. Q2 2008 total is 40% higher than in 1999. "This represents an annual birth rate of 17.2 per 1,000 of the population, 1.4 above quarter 2 of 2007. This rate is 2.7 per 1,000 population higher than in
1999."

Incidentally, the latest US data shows that the country population is also booming. The preliminary estimate of births in 2007 rose 1% to 4,317,119, the highest number of births ever registered for the US. The general fertility rate increased also by 1% in 2007, to 69.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 years, the highest level since 1990.

Clearly a good sign for Brian^2+Mary, who can now rest asured that Irish families are producing more future taxpayers for the Government to continue ripping off ordinary families. The bright future is at hand at last for public sector wages and pensions.


US:
There are some signs of longer-term lead indicators revival in the US. Much has been said about housing starts bottoming out and the fact that these are only long-term lead indicators for house prices (see here).

Unemployment - new claims have fallen by 12,000 to 646,000 in t he week ending March 14, while the numbers collecting unemployment benefits rose by 185,000 to a record seasonally adjusted 5.47 million by March 7th. The four-week average of new claims also rose by 3,750 to 654,750, the highest level in 26 years. Still, at least some things are starting to move in the right direction.

In the mean time, General Electric said it now expects GE Capital Finance unit to be profitable in Q1 and for the full year 2009. This follows a recent $9.5bn injection of capital by the parent. This, if holds through the year, is good news, as GEFC has been at the forefront of writing dodgy loans and mortgages to distressed consumers in 2005-2007.

Of course, Wednesday data was also showing some signs of the bottoming in the US recessionary dynamics. US consumer prices increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in February, primarily on the back of a 3.3% rise in energy costs (8.3% rise in gasoline prices). Food prices fell 0.1% in the first decline since mid 2007. Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) was up 0.2% - a nice range signaling possible end of deflation.

This is not to say that the current rallies are sustainable. So far, we are starting to see some early stage recovery indicators attempting to find the floor. It will take couple of months for them to start turning. But the markets will remain bearish until the second stage indicators start flashing upward turn-around. These are existent unemployment claims, construction indices, pick up in resale markets activity, PMIs etc. Until then, you'll have to be brave to wade out of the cash safety into individual equities.

And the latest news on the second stage indicators is poor. The index of leading economic indicators - designed to forecast economic activity 6-9 months ahead - fell 0.4% in February, following a gain of 0.1% in January 2009. Overall, 6 out of 10 indicators were up in February and 4 were down. According to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, "The trend remains clearly downwards, consistent with continued outright contraction in the economy."

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Deflation is cemented, but Government rip-off continues

The above table, courtesy of Ulster Bank's economics team, is revealing.

CPI is now anchored firmly in the deflation zone at -1.7% for February - a record rate of deflation since Q1 1960 (when CPI fell 2%). Prices actually fell 0.4% last month, but because in February 2008 prices grew by 1.2%, the overall difference amounted to -1.7%. So don't be surprised if you are not feeling that easing on your household budget (other than house payments), yet.


The HICP harmonised measure (ex mortgage rates) fell to +0.1%, the lowest in history (since 1997). This implies that CPI fall off was dominated by the ECB-driven declines in the cost of mortgage finance. The average mortgage cost declined 8% in February and is now down 26% on a year ago. This is certainly helping many households to stay afloat, given rapid deterioration in after-tax disposable personal incomes and rising unemployment.


Now, do the math - if the ECB rate-cuts cycle is to run out of steam by H2 2009, as expected at ca 0.75-1% level, total savings on average mortgage will amount to a total of 33% off their peak. Assuming an average mortgage burden of 30% of the household budget at the peak, this will shift overall mortgage burden to ca 22% of the budget. Assuming income tax, VAT and other housholds-related measures stay on course laid out in Budget 2009, mini-Budget will result in a fall in the household disposable income of 3-5%. Add in expected fall in earned income (due to slowdown and rising unemployment) and we have a recession-induced 13-19% decline in the disposable income. Thus, the average mortgage burden for the household will rise back to 26% at the bottom of the ECB rates-cut cycle, virtually canceling any positive effects of the ECB rates cuts on households' balance sheets.


Another feature of the figures above is the collapse in prices in the clothing and footware sector - normally the sales end in February (between 2002-2008, February saw the first monthly increases in prices in this category for the year, averaging some 12%). This year, the increase was only 7.5% - lowest since 2000.Overall, in January we recorded the steepest drop off in prices in this category in the Eurozone.


But as always, it was in the Government controlled/regulated sectors where price changes were out of sync with the rest of economy. Health insurance costs were up 21%, house insurance was up 17%. Education was up 5.5% in February after a 5.6% increase in January, health was up 4.8% in February after an increase of 5.8% in January. Government-sponsored rip-off of consumers is still alive and kicking. (Note: of course, house insurance is not directly priced by the state, although it is a part of the regulated sector. Possible causes for the rise in house insurance in recent months might include inclement weather payouts and, more importantly, insurers using all means possible to strengthen their capital reserves positions. The latter is a function of regulation and markets assessment of inherent risks. Both, in turn, are functions of the public sector actions/inactions, although indirectly).


While private sector prices were down 0.1% in the last 12 months, Government-controlled prices were up and the rate of increases is accelerating. In 12 months to January 2009: Gas prices were up 20%. Health insurance +19%, Electricity +17%, Bus and Rail transport +13% & +9% respectively, Hospital services +7-9% (out-patient v in-patient). Total Government-controlled inflation +14% for regulated services in year to February 2009.


Overall, I expect the CPI to average -3% for 2009 as a whole.