Showing posts with label Irish M&A. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Irish M&A. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

9/2/16: We've Had a Record Year in M&As last... next, what?


Dealogic M&A Statshot for the end of December 2015 showed that global M&A volumes have increased for third year running, reaching USD5.03 trillion in 2015 through mid-December. Previous record, set in 2007, was USD4.6 trillion.

  • 2015 annual outrun was up 37% from 2014 (USD3.67 trillion) 
  • 2015 outrun was the first time in history that M&As volumes reached over USD5 trillion mark.
  • 4Q 2015 volume of deals was the highest quarterly outrun on record at USD1.61 trillion, marking acceleration in deals activity for the year
  • There is huge concentration of deals in mega-deal category of over USD10 billion, with 69 such deals in 2015, totalling USD1.9 trillion, more than double USD864 billion in such deals over 36 deals in 2014.
  • Even larger, USD50 billion and over, transactions accounted for record 16% share of the total M&As with 10 deals totalling in value at USD798.9 billion.
  • Pfizer’s USD160.0 billion merger with Allergan, officially an ‘Irish deal’, announced on November 23, is now the second largest M&A deal in history (see more on that here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2016/01/28116-irish-m-not-too-irish-mostly.html)


The hype of M&As as the form of ‘investment’ in a sales-less world (see here http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2016/02/9216-sales-and-capex-weaknesses-are-bad.html) is raging on and the big boys are all out with big wads of cash. Problem is:


The former, however, is trouble for investors, not management. The latter two are trouble for us, mere mortals, who want well-paying jobs. which brings us about to 'What's next?' question.

Given lack of organic revenue growth and profitability margins improvements, and given tightening of the corporate credit markets, one might assume that M&As craze will abate in 2016. Indeed, that would be rational. But I would not start banking on M&A slowdown returning companies to real capital spending. All surplus cash available for investment ex-amortisation and depreciation and ex-investment immediately anchored to demand growth (not opportunity-creating investment) will still go to M&As and share support schemes. And larger corporates, still able to tap credit markets, will continue racing to the top of the big deals. So moderation in M&As will likely be not as sharp as moderation in corporate lending, unless, of course, all the hell breaks loose in the risk markets.

Friday, January 29, 2016

28/1/16: Irish M&As: Not Too Irish & Mostly Inversions


Experian latest figures for *Irish* M&A activities for 2015 show some astronomical number: Per release: “The number of deals on the Irish mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market increased by 10 per cent last year, its strongest performance since 2008…” Which is not what is impressive. Although the overall number of actual transactions hit 458 in 2015, up from 416 the previous year, it is the value of transactions that is beyond any belief.

Again, per Experian: “The total value of transactions reached €312 billion – up from €154 billion in 2014 and by some way the most valuable year for corporate deal making in the country’s history. Activity continues to be driven by the pharmaceuticals and biotech sector.” This number is a third higher than the value of exports of good and services from Ireland over the period of 12 months through 3Q 2015 and it is almost 60 percent higher than Irish GDP. In other words, using normal valuations multiples, you should be able to buy anywhere between 1/4 and 2/5 of entire Ireland on this money. In one go, and forever… And that’s one year worth.

Per Experian: “Irish deals accounted for around 3.6% of the total volume of European transactions in 2015, but 20.5% of their total value. In 2014, the Republic of Ireland again featured in 3.6% of European deals but contributed just 12.7% to their overall value.”

So conservatively, let’s say 1/3 of Ireland bought last year and, say 1/5 in 2014… that’s half the country economy in two years.

But how on Earth can a little country like Ireland attract such a level of financial activity? Why, remember that magic word… ‘inversions’ - yes, that same word that out Government denies applies to Ireland.

Well, Experian provides a small insight (they wouldn’t tell us the full story, but they can’t quite escape from telling us some. Enjoy the following: per Experian, Top 5 “Irish” deals announced in 2015 includedd:

  • Pfizer-Allergan at EUR143.564 billion
  • Teva Pharma - Generic drug business of Allergan at EUR35.454 billion
  • Shire - Baxalta at EUR29.533 billion
  • Willis Group Holdings - Towers Watson deal at EUR15.566 billion, and
  • CRH - Holcim & Lafarge deal at EUR7.671 billion


So, yep: tax inversion at the top, related to tax inversion at No.2, tax inversion at No.3… and none (repeat - none, including CRH deal) related in any way to Ireland, except for tax domicile of the companies involved.

Repeat with me… “There are no tax inversions into Ireland”… now, with zombie like intonation, please… “There are no…”



Tuesday, January 14, 2014

14/1/2014: Irish M&A activity in 2013


Irish M&A values rose strongly in 2013, according to the Experian data.

  • "Total number of Irish Mergers and Acquisitions and Equity Captial Market deals in 2013 was 254 - a decline of 15.1% from the 299 deals announced in 2012". 
  • "The total value of deals for the year, however, increased significantly led by a spike in the number of mega (€1bn plus) deals. Transactions worth €38.590bn were announced in 2013, up by 39.1% from 2012’s €27.734bn worth of deals."
  • Core mega-deals were split between pharma manufacturing and financial services
  • "The Republic of Ireland represented approximately 2.4% of the total volume of all European transactions in 2013, and accounted for 4.9% of their total value. In 2012, the Republic of Ireland featured in 2.9% of European deals and contributed 3.6% to their total value."
  • There were 37 large deals (over €120mln) announced in 2013, up by 32.1% on 2012’s total of 28 transactions; the twelve large deals announced in Q4 represented the busiest quarter in the large deals value segment since Q4 2006. Large deal values were up from €24.687bn in 2012 to €35.846bn in YTD 2013, a rise of 45.2%. The largest announced deal in 2013 was Perrigo Corp’s acquisition of Elan Corporation Plc for US$8.6bn.
  • Mid-market (€12-€120mln) deal activity declined; 43 transactions were announced, down by 35.8% from the 67 deals announced in 2012. The aggregate value of mid-market deals fell by 34.4%, from €2.803bn to €1.840bn. Notable mid-market deals in 2013 included Dublin electronic payments business Payzone sell Cardpoint Ltd, to Houston-based Cardtronics Inc. for €119mln.
  • The number of small deals (under €12mln fell by 11.1% on 2012’s figures; down from 54 to 48 transactions. The aggregate value of small transactions also fell - by 26.3%, from €243mln to €179mln.
  • Largest by sector was - manufacturing. In 2013 accounted for 43.3% of deals; however, deal volumes here were down by 27.1% (from 150 in 2012 to 110 in 2013). 
  • Second most active sector: wholesale, retail & repair, activity declined by 41.6%.
  • Post and telecommunications sector saw 114% upturn in activity. 
  • Social and personal services sector activity rose 76.5%. 
  • Research and development sector activity was up 53.3%.  

Internationally:
"Europe saw a slight reduction in transaction volume in 2013 (from 10,500 to 10,476 deals), but an upturn in deal value, from €754.7bn in 2012 to €786bn, an increase of 4.1%."

"North American deal volumes were down by 28.7% (from 8,283 deals in 2012 to 5,908 in 2013), but the aggregate value of transactions was up by 1.3% year-on-year, to €939.7bn. North America returned strong activity in its manufacturing and information technology sectors in 2013."

"Asia-Pacific region ...volume was down 25.2% (from 8,822 deals in 2012 to 6,602 in 2013), without the associated increase in value recorded in the US and Europe (total deal value slumped from €616.9bn in 2012 to €385.6bn in 2013)."

See more on the subject here: http://www.experian.co.uk/assets/consumer-information/white-papers/corpfin/cf-monthly-review-dec-2013.pdf

A chart to illustrate: