Tuesday, April 11, 2017

10/4/17: BRIC Composite PMIs 1Q 17: Not Keeping Up With Global Growth

In two previous posts, I have covered the 1Q 2017 data for Manufacturing PMIs and Services PMIs for BRIC economies. Both indicators provided little hope that world's largest emerging economies are generating a positive growth momentum consistent with stronger global economic growth.

The same is confirmed by the Composite PMIs:

Brazil's 1Q 2017 Composite PMI came in at 46.7, up on 46.1 in 4Q 2016, but still below the stagnation line. In simple terms, Brazil's Composite PMIs have now signalled negative growth for 12 consecutive quarters. Improved 1Q 2017 reading is consistent with continued and strong contraction in the economy, albeit a contraction that is less pronounced than in previous quarters.

Russia's Composite PMI posted a reading of 56.7, marking the strongest growth performance for the economy since 4Q 2006. Predictably, given both Manufacturing and Services PMIs as discussed in above-linked posts, Russian economy has outperformed in 1Q 2017 global economic growth momentum and is currently the strongest BRIC economy for the fourth consecutive quarter.

India's Composite PMI came in at 50.8, up marginally on 50.7 in 4Q 2016. This marks the second consecutive quarter of Composite PMI readings for India that are statistically indistinguishable from the stagnation line of 50.0. There is little good news in the data from India, where the fallout from the disastrous de-monetisation campaign by the government has been taking its toll.

Chinese Composite PMI stood at 52.3 in 1Q 2017, down from 53.1, but still the second highest since 1Q 2013. In simple terms, this means that the Chinese economic growth is not accelerating off 4Q 2016 dynamics, suggesting that the economy has now exhausted any momentum gained on foot of a massive credit bubble expansion in modern history.

Chart below illustrates the dynamics:

As shown above, Russia is the only BRIC economy currently generating upward supports for global growth.

When we consider individual sectoral indices, as shown in the chart below, BRIC Manufacturing sector is now pushing global growth momentum down, while BRIC Services sector is co-moving with the global growth, but provides no positive momentum to global economic expansion:

Finally, using monthly data (100=zero growth) for the BRIC economies index of economic activity (computed by me based on Markit and IMF data), the chart below shows just to what extent does Russian growth momentum dominates rest of the BRIC economies dynamics:

In summary, BRIC economies remain negative contributors to the global economic growth, with BRIC economies posting overall positive, but weak growth across the two key sectors.

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